Power and influence in Africa : Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa

摘要

This paper explores the changing power capabilities of Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia,Nigeria, and South Africa (the ‘Big Five’) over the next 25 years. Of these countries,Ethiopia and Nigeria are forecast to increase their power capabilities, whereas Algeria,Egypt and South Africa are expected to stagnate or decline. Of the Big Five, twocurrently punch above their weight – one that is rising, Ethiopia, and another whosegrowth is stagnant, South Africa. If Nigeria were able to take the necessary steps thatwould see far-reaching changes to the governance issues and social challenges thatcurrently beset the country, it could become Africa’s lone superpower.